Alabama challenges Kentucky in SEC Tournament quarterfinals

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Kentucky Wildcats begin play in the 2010 SEC Tournament with a quarterfinal-round matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The winner of this game will move on to Saturday's semifinals to collide with either Ole Miss or Tennessee.

Alabama is the fourth seed from the SEC's West Division, and it appeared that the program's stay in this tournament would be short-lived after falling behind South Carolina by 18 points in the second half of yesterday's first- round game. To the surprise of everyone, the Tide mounted a furious comeback and escaped with a 66-63 victory. Alabama has won this tournament six times, the second most in the league, but the last crown was captured way back in 1991. Still, the Tide is 58-43 in this event and 17-14 overall this season.

The Wildcats have won this event 25 times and own a 111-22 record in SEC Tournament games. Still, they haven't cut down the nets since 2004 and haven't reached the title game since 2005. Kentucky is a stellar 29-2 overall under first-year head coach John Calipari, and the team won 14 of its 16 games versus SEC opponents during the regular season. The 'Cats are the top seed from the loaded East Division of the SEC.

During the regular season, Kentucky won its only meeting with Alabama by a 66-55 final, and the Wildcats own a commanding 99-35 advantage in the all-time series.

Alabama is generating 68.5 ppg this season while allowing 64.5 ppg to opponents. The Crimson Tide rely heavily on the talented duo of Mikhail Torrance and JaMychal Green. Torrance leads the club with 15.5 ppg, and he has dished out an impressive total of 160 assists. As for Green, he checks in with 14.1 ppg and 7.0 rpg. Yesterday, Torrance scored 17 points to lead Alabama, while Justin Knox added 16 points and seven rebounds against South Carolina. Green posted 10 points and seven boards for the Tide, who overcame 39.3 percent shooting from the floor on the strength of a 21-14 edge in points from the foul line. In the second half, 'Bama managed to limit the Gamecocks to 36.5 percent shooting, impressive to say the least.

Kentucky leads the conference in many statistical categories, including scoring offense (79.9 ppg), scoring margin (+14.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.478), field goal percentage defense (.382), rebounding margin (+9.1 rpg) and assists (14.9 apg). Freshman sensation John Wall, who was recently named the SEC Player of the Year, is scoring 17.0 ppg to go along with a league-best 6.2 apg, and fellow rookie star DeMarcus Cousins, the SEC Freshman of the Year, checks in with 15.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 1.8 bpg. Don't forget about veteran Patrick Patterson and his 15.0 ppg and 7.6 rpg. Eric Bledsoe, a third standout freshman, rounds out the double-digit scorers with 10.4 ppg. Kentucky is holding opponents to 65.6 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting from the floor, so this is much more than an explosive offensive team. It is argued by many that Calipari possesses the most talented team in the nation, and it is hard to argue that point.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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