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04/08/2010 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joakim Noah's tip-in with 1:21 left ended up being the game-winner after a wild final minute of misses and miscues, as Chicago inched past Cleveland, 109-108, at the United Center.
With LeBron James sitting, the Bulls are still standing. James played the part of cheerleader with the Cavaliers locked into the Eastern Conference's top position, aiding Chicago to climb even with Toronto for the final playoff spot in the East.
The two teams will meet on Sunday, but first the Bulls visit New Jersey on Friday while Toronto travels to Atlanta on the same day.
Derrick Rose led a balanced attacked with 24 points and 10 assists, Kirk Hinrich added a big scoring boost with 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting and Luol Deng notched a double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds. The Bulls have won three of four with four games left in their attempt to make the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons.
James watched Mo Williams drain six treys as part of a 35-point, James-like explosion that included 10 assists. Antawn Jamison chipped in with 23 points and six rebounds and Jamario Moon totaled 14 points off the bench. The Cavs have lost three straight on the road.
<< Bolts nip playoff-bound Sens in shootout
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Teddy Purcell scored the lone goal in the
shootout, lifting the Tampa Bay Lightning to a 4-3 win over the Ottawa
Senators.
Purcell was Tampa Bay's third shooter and used a forehand-to-backhand mov
<< Panthers topple division-seeking Devils
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nathan Horton scored the game-deciding goal in
the third period and Scott Clemmensen made 42 saves against his former team,
as the Florida Panthers held off the New Jersey Devils, 3-2.
Horton and Michael F
<< Golf Tidbits: Inside the ropes, Tiger hasn't changed much
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As you might have noticed, Tiger Woods
returned to action Thursday at The Masters.
For Woods, it was the end of a self-imposed "indefinite break" that started
soon after his Thanksgiving weekend car accide
<< Crosby hits 50 goals as Pens beat Isles to tie for division lead
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sidney Crosby reached a pair of milestones
with a two-goal, two-assist performance, as Pittsburgh posted a spirited 7-3
victory over the New York Islanders in the final regular-season game at Mellon
Arena.
Modano plays hero amidst fan adulation as Stars clip Ducks in SO >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If this was Mike Modano's final home game in a
Stars uniform, it sure was a storybook ending.
Modano scored the tying goal with 1:47 left in regulation and netted the
winner in the shootout as Dallas o
Boston College, Wisconsin to meet NCAA men's ice hockey final >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ben Smith notched a pair of goals and one
assist, as Boston College dominated Miami-Ohio, 7-1, in a Frozen Four matchup
from Ford Field.
Joe Whitney added a goal and two helpers for the Eagles (28-10-3)
Clippers-Kings, Box >>
L.A. CLIPPERS (94)Butler 3-10 0-0 6, Gooden 8-13 1-1 17, Kaman 10-16 3-3 23, Davis 4-12 1-2 11, Gordon 7-14 3-4 21, Collins 2-5 0-0 4, Jordan 3-4 0-0 6, Blake 1-5 0-0 3, Skinner 0-1 0-0 0, Brown 1-2 1-1 3, Novak 0-0 0-0 0. Totals 39-82 9-11 94.SA
Canucks-Sharks Sum >>
Vancouver 0 0 2-2San Jose 1 3 0-4First Period-1, San Jose, Pavelski 25 (Clowe, Setoguchi), 18:35.Second Period-2, San Jose, Couture 5 (Vlasic, T.Mitchell), 1:57. 3, San Jose, Thornton 20 (Heatley, Marleau), 5:16. 4, San Jose, Malhotra 14 (T.M
March Madness odds and printable March Madness brackets
With the field of 64/65 set, MySportsbook.com has the Florida Gators as the 4-1 favorite to successfully defend their National Championship. Men’s Division-1 College Basketball has not seen a team repeat as National Champions since Duke won back to back championships in ’91 & ‘92. After losing three out of four late in the season, the Gators are full of momentum as they won their last four games by an average of 18 points. Not surprisingly, right behind the Gators are the other three top seeds: Kansas 5-1, UNC 6-1, and Ohio State 7-1. Many consider Kansas to be the hottest team in the country, having won 11 straight. With Kansas, it is hard to ignore all of the early exits from the “dance” in recent years. With an impressive ACC Tournament, UNC ensured themselves the other top seed. UNC has about as much talent as any other team in the tournament but with a team that’s best players are primarily freshman and sophomores, could youth be a concern. Behind freshman sensation, Greg Oden, OSU will look to do what their football team failed to do just a few months earlier. OSU seems to have peeked at the right time, as they currently have a 17 game winning streak. Since the tournament field was expanded in 1985, there has never been an instance where all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It is obvious that each of the top seeds have the talent to make it through to Atlanta. But as everyone knows, when makes the NCAA Tournament so special are all of the spoilers and “Cinderella” stories that knock off the favorites on a daily basis.
Be sure to logon to MySportsbook.com to see check out all of the early lines and “March Madness” props. Also be sure to enter the “$10,000,000 Perfect Bracket Contest”. If someone has the skills to predict every winner, they will be set for life and walk away with $10,000,000. Even if no one can cash in on the Grand Prize, with a $35,000 guaranteed prize pool and a Mazda RX-8 to the first prize winner, Sportsbook.com’s bracket is a must for all “March Madness” fans.
MySportsbook.com’s odds to win the Championship and Regions:
| EAST | National Championship | Region |
| Arkansas | 300-1 | 50-1 |
| Belmont | 1000-1 | |
| Boston College | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Eastern KY | 1000-1 | |
| George Washington | 75-1 | |
| Georgetown | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| Marquette | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Michigan State | 100-1 | 25-1 |
| New Mexico St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| UNC | 6-1 | 6-5 |
| Oral Roberts | 500-1 | |
| Texas | 15-1 | 5-1 |
| Texas Tech | 200-1 | 5-1 |
| USC | 75-1 | 20-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Washington State | 40-1 | 15-1 |
| WEST | ||
| Duke | 50-1 | 10-1 |
| Florida A&M | 1000-1 | |
| Gonzaga | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Holy Cross | 300-1 | |
| Illinois | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Indiana | 75-1 | 40-1 |
| Kansas | 5-1 | 13-10 |
| Kentucky | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Niagara | 1000-1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 40-1 | 8-1 |
| Southern Ill. | 50-1 | 12-1 |
| UCLA | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| VCU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Villanova | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| VA Tech | 50-1 | 15-1 |
| Weber St | 1000-1 | |
| Wright St | 1000-1 | 300-1 |
| MIDWEST | ||
| Arizona | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| Butler | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Davidson | 300-1 | |
| Florida | 4-1 | 4-5 |
| Georgia Tech | 75-1 | 25-1 |
| Jackson State | 1000-1 | |
| Maryland | 30-1 | 6-1 |
| Miami-OH | 300-1 | |
| Notre Dame | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| ODU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Oregon | 40-1 | 6-1 |
| Purdue | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Texas A&M CC | 1000-1 | |
| UNLV | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Winthrop | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Wisconsin | 15-1 | 7-2 |
| SOUTH | ||
| Albany | 200-1 | |
| BYU | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Central CT St. | 1000-1 | |
| Creighton | 100-1 | 35-1 |
| Long Beach St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| Louisville | 40-1 | 10-1 |
| Memphis | 30-1 | 4-1 |
| Nevada | 75-1 | 35-1 |
| North Texas | 500-1 | |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 6-5 |
| Penn | 500-1 | |
| Stanford | 200-1 | 50-1 |
| Tennessee | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| Texas A&M | 12-1 | 11-5 |
| Virginia | 75-1 | 18-1 |
| Xavier | 100-1 | 40-1 |
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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