No Luck Needed for Lookin At Lucky

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/17/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2010 Preakness was extremely reminiscent to the 1997 edition when three horses, including Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm, finished a quarter-of-a-length apart. In fact, Touch Gold was only 1 1/2-lengths behind in fourth after stumbling at the start.

This Saturday's race saw four horses within one length of each other with less than a sixteenth of a mile to run. Lookin At Lucky, the 2-1 second choice, battled with three double-digit longshots - First Dude, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist.

Lookin At Lucky, who led for most of the stretch run, finally prevailed by three-quarters of a length over First Dude handing those that bet the 7-11 exacta a $188.60 reward for every $2 wagered.

Jackson Bend finished a head back in third and a full length in front of Yawanna Twist, who rounded out a $2 superfecta worth $34,252.

There were many exceptional performances in the race, but the one major disappointment came from the Kentucky Derby winner.

Super Saver finished a lackluster eighth (beaten almost a dozen lengths) just two weeks after his triumphant victory in the Derby. Before the Preakness, his trainer Todd Pletcher was extremely worried about the quick two-week turnaround and he was dead on as Super Saver looked like a badly conditioned three-year-old.

The son of Maria's Mon faltered badly after chasing front-runner First Dude for the first six furlongs. One can argue that jockey Calvin Borel placed him too close to the quick pace. but that claim holds zero water as the front running First Dude wound up running second, beaten less than a length.

Despite the failure of the Derby winner, the main storyline of the Preakness was Lookin At Lucky and his rider, Martin Garcia.

The 25-year-old jockey, who replaced future hall-of-famer Garrett Gomez, rode a flawless race keeping Lookin At Lucky on the outside, free from trouble, for the entire run down the backstretch. It was the antithesis of the colt's three previous races under Gomez.

Lookin At Lucky and Garcia then took the lead at the head of the stretch and held off all challengers to win by three-quarters of a length and give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Preakness victory.

AN EARLY LOOK AT THE BELMONT

Unfortunately, those expecting Lookin At Lucky to move forward to the Belmont Stakes will be sadly disappointed. Baffert stated early Sunday morning that the Preakness winner will head back home to California and not attempt to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver will also not race in the Belmont leaving the race without the Derby and Preakness winners for the first time since 2006.

That means Derby runner-up Ice Box will be the early favorite in the Test of Champions. His trainer Nick Zito will also have the probable second choice in Fly Down, the recent winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park. Furthermore, there's a chance Zito could send Jackson Bend as well since the gritty colt ran huge at Pimlico.

The 12th-place Derby finisher rebounded with a bang-up third in the Preakness, failing to nail down the second spot by a diminishing head. It might be asking lot for him to go the 12 furlongs of the Belmont after a grueling spring campaign but there won't be much speed in the race and his presence could help Zito's two closers even more.

Speaking of the expected lack of pace in the Belmont, First Dude has a great chance of going gate-to-wire, especially if Jackson Bend stays in his barn on the first Saturday in June.

First Dude ran his heart out in the Preakness, battling back on the inside to finish second after setting a quick pace on the front end. Trainer Dale Romans had the son of Stephen Got Even in great shape all week long and was extremely confident in the colt's chances despite the high odds.

Yawanna Twist will not be moving forward to the Belmont Stakes, but the Rick Dutrow-trained three-year-old almost pulled off the upset with a bold rally through the stretch. In the end, he failed to pick up any ground inside the final 10 jumps, settling for fourth-place money.

The only other Preakness runner that might go in the Belmont Stakes is Dublin.

Ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, the son of 2005 Belmont winner Afleet Alex, got off to a miserable beginning breaking from post 12.

In last place for most of the race, Dublin closed well to finish fifth, beaten only six lengths. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a history of racing his three- year-olds through tough campaigns so it wouldn't come as a shock to see Dublin in the Belmont Stakes.

Other possible starters include stout closers such as Setsuko, Stay Put, Stately Victor and Make Music for Me, as well as a pair of stalkers in Uptowncharlybrown, Game On Dude and Drosselmeyer.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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